Facts & fakes of poll prediction

Free Thinker *

 Voting for Inner Manipur Parliamentary Constituency for 17th Lok Sabha election at Imphal :: 18 April 2019
Voting for Inner Manipur Parliamentary Constituency for 17th Lok Sabha election at Imphal on 18 April 2019 :: Pix - Shankar Khangembam

One RSS leader cum friend asked me, what is the likely result? I said NDA may come back to power with a reduced number. He retorted that BJP alone is crossing 300. Then I politely rebuked him ,”then your query was redundant”. Then he laughed.

These days all the mobile phone users are suffering from fake news and doctored videos with regard to the national election. Social media has become hyper active; it becomes too difficult to identify which one is the fact, which is one is less reliable and which one is bogus? We are really confused and confounded.

Amidst this one more chaos is created by predicting the election result by every Tomba Chaoba and Hongba. But I really enjoy this chaos. You may also join me.

Wiki-pollster has compiled the poll predictions or surveys conducted by the Mafia houses sorry Media houses and poll companies (psephologists). According to that compilation one big media house along with a prediction company says NDA will get 279, UPA 149 and Others will get 115. G says it will be 264 NDA, 165 UPA, and 114 Others;

One Hindi Channel predicts that NDA 310, UPA 122 AND Others 111; R & C-Voters stands by 264 NDA, 141 UPA and 138 Others.

The final result of the ongoing parliamentary election will be finally out on 23 May. Then within a week or so a new government will be formed on the basis of the mandate given by the people of this great country which is also the biggest democracy of the world.

But for me the most interesting part of this election is the poll predictions form various quarters including the street foretellers.

Once upon a time I did a poll prediction for the State-Assembly election and it was published in a daily now vanished ; it was in the early 90’, I don’t remember the year; my prediction came out almost correct; my survey was very simple, late in the evening I spoke to some prominent drinkers who were apolitical hailed from different districts/constituencies in person or over the phone; all of them were frank and truthful after 3 or 4 pegs, they gave me full idea about the pulse of the people and the prospects of the contesting candidates.

That kind of survey was highly flayed by the then editor though profusely appreciated the result. In our State everyone is winning; CPI says they are winning; Congress says they are the victors ; BJP claims that they are certainly coming out with flying colors; Kaiku says he will get through; NEIDP thinks they can win; NPF calculates that they are invincible in the hills; NPP indicates that they will decide the winners; MPP may demonstrate that they are still strong; In fact there will be no losers .

I believe they all are winners because they come forward to serve the people and to represent the State in Dilli. We must appreciate their courage, dedication and commitment. Chouba says if it were us it would have been a convincing victory; still we have a fair chance to win; party worked hard for the outer also but let us see which gun is more sophisticated; one is almost certain , we may scrap through with the other too. At the center we are coming back; there may be some numerical problem but it will be sorted out.

We have experts in numerology; in the last NDA avatar we somehow managed the collision (coalition); sometimes we had to run to Chennai and on some occasions we had to rush to Kolkata; but we had special flights and envoys for any kind of eventuality. Our experience before the India shinning era would help us to run any multi-party government.

Ibo says Congress is certainly winning in Manipur as well as in India; for the State we have given the best candidates, it is up to the people to choose them and send them to Dilli; experience in governance is very necessary for lobbying at the center particularly for funding and debt management. We were left only with 44 in the last battle.

That was because of some tsunami; this time there is no tsunami or wave; this Fani may affect Odisha or Bengal , but people were already evacuated. So, there is harkly any impact . In any case we will get more than the last figure; it is a win-win situation for us.

Joy murmurs whether our party or their party , party is party , we are running a party and they are also running a party; A party or B party , party is party; one party may win this time another party will win next time ; we are in party politics, party needs us, without our participation , party can’t exists; party needs us more than we need the party; we are for the party.

Actually, common people are fed up of parties but we love parties. The best party is the Cocktail party. A fake poll survey report is in wide circulation among the gullible people in the social media - it predicts that NDA will get 206 and UPA 205 and others get 132. What is surprising is that they also made state wise predictions; for Manipur it is 1 : 1.

Perhaps the fakers don’t understand the ground reality of the State. By chance if UPA gets 206 and NDA gets 205 will Raisana hills invite 206 to form the government or wait for a more reliable figure to emerge in the post result scenario. Let us wait and see the greatest theatrics of Indian Democracy.

This time BBC (Bharat Broadcasting Corporation) prognosticates that only one party will form the government and there will be no need of any coalition; mandate will be crystal clear; a Nationalist party will win hands down. Reacting to this news the oldest nationalist party responds, we are winning. The ultranationalists are giggling.

Soothsayer- “Opposition is the winner but it will be BJP government “.

* Free Thinker wrote this article for The Sangai Express
This article was webcasted on May 06, 2019.

* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.

  • Pakhangba Cheng-hongba #1 : Gallery
  • Better Selfie with Smarter Technology
  • Repeal AFSPA enacted on 22 May 1958
  • Cry of a Dying River - 77 :: Poem
  • Biodiversity : Why humanity should care ?
  • Research Officer at Amethyst Research
  • The Terrace Open Mic - II : Report
  • NPF exposed in public domain : NDPP
  • End of the largest democratic exercise
  • Stop faking and face the facts
  • Future Hindu Culture of Meitei is magificient
  • International Day of Biodiversity 2019
  • The Trunk that life of a Soldier moves on
  • MCS/MPS through lottery ? :: WJ
  • Job Vacancies at Leima Traders
  • Naga Peace Process :: News Timeline
  • 'Double standard' politics of NPF :: NDPP
  • Exit polls : Not the final verdict
  • Poll result prediction
  • Mary storms into semis
  • Glory Days of Manipur in the 18th Century
  • Alternate Rationality: Its Possibility : Book
  • Does burning of school reflect larger malady
  • RIST Talk 39 : Year of Periodic Table
  • Manipur : A woman's world
  • Paramedical courses as career options
  • Revoke suspension for NPF Office Bearers
  • Class X results : Best in 10 years
  • The wrath of Mother Nature
  • Poumai Purul Paoki Fest : Gallery
  • AEgi KoHcY :: Seireng
  • The Tamna Tamna Video: Critical Analysis
  • 'NDPP's child like attitude for meddling'
  • Rejoinder to NDPP by NPF President
  • Amazing beauty benefits of coconut oil
  • Urge Nagaland govt to review security
  • Pull out threat from the NPF
  • Myanmar launches ops on NE militants
  • Myanmar jails 24 from Assam, Manipur
  • 2019 HSLC Exam Toppers :: Gallery
  • HSLC Toppers share thoughts, aspirations
  • CFP on 'Photoacoustics' at IEEE TENCON
  • Arrival of Fall Armyworm in Manipur
  • Youth and Contemporary Issues #4
  • No Escape from Real World :: Poem
  • Civil & Structural Engineer at R-Square
  • Architectural Designer at R-Square DCS
  • 'NPF Manipur is directionless leadership'
  • HSLC :: Top 25 Rank Holders
  • HSLC :: Subject Topper
  • HSLC :: Statistical Abstract
  • HSLC :: Full Roll No Listing
  • HSLC :: Compartmental
  • Dairies of 2 Tours in Naga Hills : Book
  • Kohima Press Club (KPC) elects new team
  • Manipur : The unsung fashion capital
  • Brain Stimulation for Parkinson disease
  • 2nd Foundation Day of NDPP
  • Changing face of the North East
  • 129th Birth Anniversary of Ho Chi Minh
  • Understanding performance of Govt school
  • Amazing Folk-tales of Koireng Tribe
  • Fashion by Kumarjit Laishram #1 : Gallery
  • Cry of a Dying River - 76 :: Poem
  • Plastic Pollution & its effect
  • Significance of Nurses Week celebration
  • Legal Assistance to Prisoners' Family
  • Talk on 'Alliance - Biblical Perspective'
  • Shorthand/Stenography Typing Course
  • Fissures with a coalition partner
  • 4 plus 4 is always equal to 8
  • Mukna Kangjei Tournament : Gallery
  • Socio-cultural significance of Gudui-Ngai
  • Diesel auto vs Traffic control :: Artwork
  • Future of Moreh: Development partnership..
  • An alarming stay in a hotel
  • Naga Students Delhi Admission help Desk
  • Need to focus on the average students too
  • The politics of rumours
  • Phayeng Koubru Haraoba #4 : Gallery
  • Chinsuanlam, Apakpi :: eMing
  • ELVEEGO : Top 10 Promising Companies
  • Myanmar Refugee Problem : Report
  • Mother :: Poem
  • Minerva Punjab FC to conduct trials
  • Represent the people, not only party
  • When vegetables slowly poison us?
  • Hr Sec Exam 2019 Toppers #2: Gallery
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2019 #2: Gallery
  • Dear Mother :: Poem
  • Youth and Contemporary Issues #3
  • Why are Govt schools lagging behind ?
  • Career option in Veterinary Science
  • Saluting Mothers of the world
  • Will Sharmila have a Third Life ?
  • NE for efforts to address illegal influx
  • Rs 10 coins not acceptable in Manipur!
  • Agri Fair @ CAU #2 : Gallery
  • Khomlen Manglanda - A Play #2 : Gallery
  • AMWJU new terms 2019-2021
  • Run for Raisina Hill
  • Happy Mother's Day
  • Mother's Day
  • Aspiration in Medical Career
  • MPSC : Wallowing in dirt
  • Why the 1st Bird Sanctuary in Thinungei
  • Purnima Moirangthem : 5th in Commerce
  • Respect for a mother
  • Academic excellence is not everything
  • Indo-Naga & other peace talks #6
  • A Dwarfish Whole :: Poem
  • Takayasu Arteritis treated at SKY Hospital
  • Mercury rise: Is it common men fault
  • Ajit Ningthouja :: eRang Photos
  • Had not there been ILPS agitation ? : Story
  • Dance & folk songs of natives of NE #2
  • BJP for NE Community Campaign in Delhi
  • Serou dam-Atypical structure in Chakpi river
  • Benefits of automation in medical laboratory
  • Civil Servant from Matupi hospitalized...
  • Madness on the roads of Imphal
  • Root of peoples' anger to doctors
  • Jiribam Bazaar :: 360 Panorama View
  • Eyek Tamba :: Learn Manipuri script
  • Cry of a Dying River - 75 :: Poem
  • What Yoga is & is not ?
  • Rio at General Conference of NSF
  • Make right choice in selecting your campus
  • Suspension Order for 19 NPF Members
  • Festival of marks and more marks
  • worry on condition of Govt Schools
  • Thailand Princess @Kangla #2 :: Gallery
  • Kadigampou, Akeng :: eMing
  • Ningombam Tampha :: 3rd in ISC Exam
  • Our Grammy goes to Thangmeiso Shinglai
  • Call for application from youths
  • Life is not about how far you hang on
  • NERIST admission notice : PG & PhD
  • Seminar at MU : Material Engineering
  • Class XII : Looking beyond Imphal
  • Understanding Consumers' rights
  • HSE : Candidates securing Highest Marks
  • HSE 2019 : Science Stream Result
  • HSE 2019 : Arts Stream Result
  • HSE 2019 : Commerce Stream Result
  • HSE 2019 Toppers : Science
  • HSE 2019 Toppers : Arts
  • HSE 2019 Toppers : Commerce
  • HSE 2019 : Result Abstract
  • HSE 2019 : District Wise
  • Solid waste management in Imphal
  • Naga Ancestral Freedom Movement
  • My franchise for Mom's Primary
  • Bamboo based industries in Manipur
  • Is sugar ageing you
  • Competition among schools
  • Will modification help in solving traffic chaos
  • Cheiraoba Chak Katpa #2 :: Gallery
  • MANFETE 2019 at MU :: Gallery
  • What is Change ?
  • The integrity of Manipur
  • Dance & folk songs of natives of NE #1
  • Indo-Naga & other peace talks #5
  • Understand kids with developmental delay
  • Meet with Fortis Hospital, Delhi
  • Understanding idea of NE
  • Mr. Edn Min, please act like Manish of Delhi
  • Ibudhou Oknarel & Khudithibi
  • May Calendar for Year 2019 :: Tools
  • Facts & fakes of poll prediction
  • Sketches & Notes of Summertime :: Poem
  • The other Face of 'May -Day'
  • Check-up for new born- Split Spine Defect
  • Retaining Walls & Flooding in Moirang
  • Gearing up for counting day
  • Religion profile of Manipur: Impact study #2
  • Andro Girls won Doon Cup :: Gallery
  • Rajbans Huidrom : Topper CBSE XII
  • Nongdol Leima- Dance Drama #1:: Gallery
  • Human Trafficking to SE Asia via NE
  • Tributes on Khongjom Day #2 :: Gallery
  • M Diana: National Women Social Award
  • Handloom show : Robert Naorem & Soma
  • Urmila Shagolsem: Miss India 2019 Finalist
  • Thang Ta @Sangai Fest #5 :: Gallery
  • Indo-Naga & other peace talks #4
  • Yaoshang Halankar #2 :: Gallery
  • Demand for ILP :: Articles/Photos...
  • Anglo-Manipur war from military point of view
  • Yubi Lakpi :: Gallery
  • Peeshumlei : Book Release :: Gallery
  • Significance of festival: Nanu-Ngai
  • Onetwo Okram - Singer #1 :: eRang
  • Inner Line Permit (ILP) Demand :: Timeline
  • Tributes on Khongjom Day #1 :: Gallery
  • Shajibu Cheiraoba @ Pune : Gallery
  • Romita Yumnam : Mrs India Queen
  • Meekap Thokpa Numit #2 : Gallery
  • Shivaratri Shopping List #2 : Gallery
  • Tributes to PLA killed #2 : Gallery
  • A talk with Ajit Ningthouja :: eRang
  • LS : Voting for Inner : Gallery
  • Ibendhou Kounu Haraoba #2: Gallery
  • The Killing Fields 2013-18 : News Timeline
  • Sajibu Cheiraoba at Mysore #2: Gallery
  • Voting (PC) @ Kangpokpi #3: Gallery
  • Mittong Khunou: The Battle Honour of INA
  • Thabal Chongba @Khurai : Gallery
  • Manipuri Calendar for 2019 : Download
  • List of Restricted Holidays for 2019
  • List of Public Holidays for 2019
  • List of General Holidays for 2019