TODAY -

Toward a Win-Win Resolution of the Indo-Manipur Armed Conflict (IMAC)
- Part 2 -

Nongdrenkhomba Senjam *

PLA's 30th anniversary celebration at its camp
PLA's 30th anniversary celebration at its camp - 2008 :: Pix - TSE



A potential trouble for the GoI that can help the ASGoMs turn the tables on it may be discussed here. Today India is witnessing a low-intensity but widespread socio-political unrest the horizontal and vertical proliferation of Maoists is the dominant symptom of this phenomenon that has the potential to become a full-blown revolutionary uprising in the country in the case of which the present system of India will implode and the country will undergo a disintegration phase. Having given up the socialist path in favour of capitalism, the GoI has not been able to cope with the socio-economic and political maladies that have proceeded from its embrace of capitalism and misgovernment. So the GoI does not have a favourable outlook, let there be no doubt.

India may now be the second-fastest growing economy in the world. But it has emerged as a paradigm of two nations in one country in which case trickle-down theory does not come into play. On the one hand, there is India, whose people are rich, powerful and rising. In India most people eat the best of food, own top-of-the-range cars, helicopters and even jets, holiday an luxury.

But on the other hand, there exists a poor, powerless and economically static Bharat, where most if not all people cannot afford a square meal a day, let alone two, or send their children to any schools worth the name, do not possess enough clothing to wear, do not own proper homes, are quite prone to disease, exploitation, etc. and so forth, thanks primarily to capitalism and its proponents. So what is the guarantee that the palpable disillusionmant and disappointment of the unfortunate people of Bharat will not turn an 'inferno' that can obliterate this country, whose political leadership remain so deeply mesmerised by the economic growth story that they are unable to realize the real state of affairs of Bharat or see the writing on the wall?

It is no exaggeration to say that the myriad socio-economic and political maladies confronting India cannot be successfully dealt with because of various reasons: the sheer size of the country's population; persistent lobbying by capitalist forces; the unholy alliance between the political elite, the corporate leaders and certain black sheep of the media fraternity (remember the infamous Radia scandal); and, above all, capitalism.

Well, capitalism may be successful in countries that are small populationwise and it may still give the impression of being successful even in countries like India, where overall growth is taking place but at the cost of the poor people, who also have as much right to the country's resources as the Ambanis, the Tatas and the Birlas. But India cannot be expected with its billion plus population to achieve equitable economic development or inclusive sustainable growth via the principles and mantras of capitalism and by embracing the Washington consensus of liberalization and privatization.

For India to be able to achieve that, it will have to go for the Chinese economic model which the capitalist West calls 'state capitalism'. No matter what the capitalist camp calls it, China is a socialist market economy, which is a slightly cross-fertilized version of a socialist economy. It is true that China's economic model. based on its bamboo policy of bending with the wind rather than standing straight and eventually snapping, emphasizes some capitalist principles such as the encouragement of profitability for factors of production like capital and technology. But there is not much reason to term the Chinese economy 'state capitalism'.

Well, what India is unable to achieve via capitalism is achieved by China via its socialist market model, despite its higher population. Contrary to the negative predictions of the usual Chin-bashers China's socialist market model has turned out to be quite capable of delivering economic growth that is not only equitably inclusive but also sustainable, notwithstanding the sheer magnitude of its population. Today China is the fastest growing economy in the world. Having toppled Japan, it is now after the US and the whole world is green with envy at the Dragon's economic performance. Well, despite being fully aware of the successful effects of the Chinese economic model, the political establishment of India will never try to adopt the Chinese economic model, because what they are concerned mainly with is not the welfare of the people but power!

Another trouble for the GoI may arise out of the volatile Indo-Pakistan and Sino-Indian relations. India has a long-standing territorial dispute with China, which remains pretty furious with it over the sheltering of the so-called Tibetan government-in-exile in particular. According to the Chinese government, the Tibetan government-in-exile, which is based in Dharmshala (Himachal Pradesh), is a mere instrument of China-phobic countries like the US and India, which have been exploiting it and its cause with the aim of subverting the Chinese government, destabilizing the country's law and order and sabotaging the country's meteoric rise. China also feels, perhaps rightly, that all fan-Hua or anti-China activities that the Tibetab in India and other parts of the world usually engage in are secretly instigated by the US, India and other fan-Hua countries. Given these and other allied circumstances and the warlike nature of China, it can be safely concluded that it is a matter of before the history of 1962 repeats itself and India and China enter into high-intensity military conflicts if not a full-blown nuclear war.

True, trade ties between these two Asian giants are improving, but that does not mean that they are going to settle all their outstanding issues amicably in the Hindi-Chini-Bhai-Bhai manner. Well, it would prove disastrous for India to genuinely trust China, whose strategic culture is governed by the principle of Quan Bian, which stresses absolute flexibility in attitude and awareness of changes in relative military capabilities.

As regards the Indo-Pakistan equation, the Kashmir dispute, terrorism and water disputes form some of the main irritants. The most sensitive of all is, of course, the Kashmir dispute. Though the GoI has always maintained that the Kashmir dispute is a domestic issue in which no third party has the right to interfere, maybe it does internally acknowledge the importance of Pakistan for resolving it. It has to be noted that the country's relations with Pakistan are very complex.

Pakistan, particularly its military, remains pathologically hostile to India for various reasons, historical or otherwise the role of India in dismembering Pakistan in 1971 and the subsequent conversion of East Pakistan into Bangladesh, the supposed involvement of Indian intelligence agencies, particularly the R&AW in the insurgency of Balochistan and, of course, the Kashmir dispute are what mainly feed Pakistan's hatred for India. Moreover, the further Islamization of the Pakistani system and the steady spread of anti-Indian sentiments in Pakistan by deadly jihadi elements are bound to aggranate the Indo-Pakistan equation, which currently seems to be improving on the front of trade at least.

Well, no matter whether or not India allows Pakistanis to enter Dallal Street and invest in India by amending its Foreign Exchange Management Act, no matter whether or not Pakistan grants India MFN status, the trust deficit between these two neighbours can never be eliminated and the real movers and shakers of Pakistan will never hesitate to hurt India at every opportunity. All the more so because a nuclear Pakistan knows that India cannot afford to start a full-scale war with it. Pakistan claims to have adopted a No-First-Use nuclear doctrine like India. But the irony is that apparently Pakistan itself knows that India does not trust in its capacity to stick to the No-First-Use nuclear doctrine should a war ever break out between them. And Pakistan takes full advantage of India's distrust of its doctrine no to strike first.

In the wake 26/11, which was a serious provocation on the part of Pakistan, all India did was just scare and scare Pakistan by repeating the claim that all options were on the table and getting the Northern and Western Commands of the Indian Army to mobilize and increase activity along the Indo-Pakistan border as if it was going to invade Pakistan in a couple of days. There were also reports of the Indian Air Force making preparations to carry out surgical air strikes deep inside Pakistan as though Pakistan did not have any air defence systems and its US-supplied F-16 A/Bs and S/Ds, which are said to be armed with AMRAAMs and Sidewinder AAMs, had all broken down so that a couple of IAF Su-30 MKIs could fly into Pakistani airspace unchallenged, fire a couple of AGMs into the ISI HQ, drop a few bombs over the suspected hideouts of Hafig Saeed, Dawood Ibrahim and the like and fly calmly back to base at a subsonic speed.

All such claims and reports had only one purpose: the concealment of the compromising truth that India can never afford to be the first to invade because it does not really know what Pakistan's actual nuclear policy is, what its nuclear threshold is, who manages its nuclear assets or even whether it has a reliable nuclear chain of command or not. All India can really do is react proportionally and that is exactly what had happened when the Pakistani troops intruded into Kargil under Operation Badr in June 1999. Well, so far Pakistan's so far nuclear deterrents have effectively saved it a couple of times from being crushed by a much bigger and stronger India. So encouraged by the successful effects of its nuclear deterrents, Pakistan is not going to abandon its India-oriented policies, including the death-by-a-thousand-cuts one.

In view of India's hostile and volatile relations with China and Pakistan, it would be very unwise of India to defer the resolution of all the serious outstanding disputes like the IMAC and the Naga problem.

On the other hand, the ASGoMs must not lose sight of the fact that despite its numerous challenges, the GoI continues to be on an upward trajectory. They must neither fail to appreciate the implications of the GoI's growing influence for the IMAC. It may be said that the ASGoMs' chance of coming out victorious in the IMAC is inversely proportional to the GoI's overall power. The more powerful and consolidated the GoI becomes the lower the ASGoMs chance of winning or vice versa. That the needle of the GoI's power meter is fast moving clockwise at a speed corresponding to the country's economic growth rate is not a fiction but a crystal clear fact. It is therefore, very important indeed for the ASGoMs to become flexible enough in their attitude and try to settle the IMAC even through a reconciliatory mode without waiting for external factors or relying on the considerations of external forces.

Now, let me attempt to paraphrase the central message: if the IMAC is resolved through a reciprocal compromise avenue that must not only be rational but also be seen to be so, there will be a win-win situation, wherein both sides of the IMAC get reasonable if not optimum 'pay-offs'. However, if the IMAC is left to persist for long, it is certain to become something of a one-sided, single-outcome zero-sum game, in which both sides risk completely losing what is at stake. Because in the course of time the whole equation, as already noted, will have altered fundamentally, thereby swinging the balance in only one side's favour. The central message, whose another name is ROSBECA, is amply amplified in the following section.

To be continued ....


* Nongdrenkhomba Senjam wrote this article for The Sangai Express
The writer's can be contacted at maniyaisenjam(at)hotmail(dot)com or you can 'friend' him at facebook profile 'nongdrensenjam83'
This article was posted on May 29, 2012 .



* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of e-pao.net. We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.




LATEST IN E-PAO.NET
  • Human Rights issues & Tangkhul Women #1
  • COVID-19 Status 08 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Women Personnel driving change across NE
  • Webinar to celebrate Intl Women's Day
  • Intl Women's Day at Lilong
  • Intl Women's Day at Heibong Makhong
  • Give more teeth to War on Drugs campaign
  • Achieving an equal future for women
  • Relief @Kangpokpi & @Senapati: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 07 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Annual Orphanage Visit 2021 at Pune
  • Women's Film Festival @ 3 Districts, Manipur
  • Decision :: Poem
  • Women empowerment through economic..
  • Women empowerment : Nation growth
  • ADCs: Election, not undue delay..
  • My memories of Imphal from 1941 #19
  • COVID-19 Status 06 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Gaidingmei, Mathanmi, Wungreikhan: eMing
  • COVID-19 : Impact in Manipur :: News Timeline
  • Budget session & beyond
  • Launch of Cancer OPD Services at Guwahati
  • Less lipstick, more eyeliner
  • Arts Exhibition @ MU #2: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 05 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Women's Film Festival 2021 at MSFDS
  • Totem of natives of North East India #2
  • As I see the world in one page :: Poem
  • AMWJU Meeting Resolutions : 05 March 2021
  • Breaking down silos to look beyond exams
  • Mova Cave @ Hunpung, Ukhrul #1: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 04 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • PROMYS, a summer program in mathematics
  • Meeting of AMWJU : 05 March 2021
  • Dissecting Bird flu
  • Will Bengal vote for a poroborthon ?
  • Job @ Cobigent Technologies
  • Film : Is it a medium or an art form? #2
  • COVID-19 Status 03 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Emergency Meeting of AMWJU : 04 March
  • Golden Jubilee of Manipuri Cinema
  • Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture
  • Paradigm shift in role of public sector
  • The God Lainingthou Thangching Koylellai
  • COVID-19 Status 02 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • When all goes wrong
  • Are we failing children in the HIV response?
  • Counter-cyclical fiscal policy
  • Where will ST demand stand in next election?
  • Ningtham Kummei: Dance Drama #1: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 01 Mar : Govt of Manipur
  • Empowered teachers for local efficiency
  • First step towards regulation of social media
  • Of resignation dramas & disqualifications
  • Today's Manipur as reflected in media
  • Bongbal Kholen, Kpi District #1: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 28 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Totem of natives of North East India #1
  • 5 days with Bhaktisvarupa Damodara Swami
  • National Science Day 2021 at Lilong
  • Themes & objectives in National Science Day
  • More teeth to war against drugs
  • Mayang Imphal Keithel #2: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 27 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Manipur COVID Vaccination Report : 26 Feb
  • March Calendar for Year 2021 : Tools
  • Road from Imphal to Yangkhullen #2: Gallery
  • Best Panel Lawyer, Best DLSA in Manipur
  • Sustainable Agriculture: Key to Food Security
  • Film : Is it a medium or an art form? #1
  • COVID-19 Status 26 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Buyer Seller Meet @ Hotel Imphal: Gallery
  • Job @ Makok Technologies, Keinou
  • Should Meetei belong to Minority or ST #2
  • Colour your hair, limit the damage
  • Medical camp at Lamlaba Village, Tamenglong
  • Japan Lan: Life In Kangla Sangomshang
  • COVID-19 Status 25 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • AMWJU Meeting : Resolutions [Feb 25]
  • Positions @ KIIT-Tech Business Incubator
  • 'Seeding Gampreneurs' transforming villages
  • Orchidarium at IBSD Shillong is reopened
  • Cracking down on 'errant' teachers
  • Chadong Village/Chadong Lake #1: Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 24 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Folktales of Mao Maram & Poumai : Gallery
  • Guwahati Session : World Meetei Convention
  • HIV science has advanced but ...
  • I will rise :: Poem
  • Not the time to let the guards down
  • Journalism is not everybody's cup of tea
  • Foot bridges in Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 23 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • AIFF recognised Andro Girls Team : Gallery
  • Relief @ Songlung, Kangpokpi : Gallery
  • Lecture on medicinal plants at IBSD
  • Jobs @ Neopath Technologies, Imphal
  • Students on the protest path
  • Ignoring the core issues
  • My memories of Imphal from 1941 #18
  • COVID-19 Status 22 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Implementation: Climate Change : Gallery
  • KAPU Meet: Tribute to Late Benny Khongsai
  • Career options in beauty industry
  • Meet on capacity building on energy efficiency
  • Need to establish cause of death
  • Don't break the bone
  • Shirui Lily Festival 2019 #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 21 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Nakamh-Riangsuanneic - Folklore Film Fest
  • Should Meetei belong to Minority or ST #1
  • Aspergilloma of lung
  • From wetlands to dry lands
  • Ipudhou Pakhangba Puruksoubi #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 20 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Sit-in-protest against bomb threat : Gallery
  • Young Generation and Modernization
  • The Mansion :: Poem
  • Netaji's DNA & INA Moirang
  • Demonstration demanding to cut Price Hike
  • 'Condemn hurling grenade at Governor'
  • Fulfilling the long cherish dream
  • Churachandpur Profile
  • Eyek Tamba :: Learn the Manipuri script
  • COVID-19 Status 19 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Paoyi villagers with CM : Gallery
  • Predicament of Journalists & Media Houses
  • A day of stardom for Thoiba Singh at Seoul
  • Lay off hands on the media
  • Smiles of the Emas
  • Cherry Blossom at Mao #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 18 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Basak: A dying art form
  • World War II, INA & Manipuri Literature #2
  • Meeting of AMWJU : Resolutions [Feb 18]
  • CM & Governor urged to cut down price hike
  • Union Minister for Social Justice meet CM
  • Seram Neken joins Congress party
  • Snowfall at Shirui, Ukhrul #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 17 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Meitei-Pong Relations & Conquest of Khampat
  • Dying of Yongchak: declare National Disaster
  • Protection of tribal land in Manipur #2
  • Is policing pandemics different... ?
  • Home remedies for winter hair problems
  • Facets of human trafficking in Manipur
  • COVID-19 Status 16 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Road from Imphal to Yangkhullen #1: Gallery
  • Understand prerequisits for ST tag
  • When all goes wrong
  • Centre Head @ JCRE School of Hospitality
  • Khamba Thoibi Jagoi #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 15 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Re-Opening of Ima Keithel : Gallery
  • Emergency Meeting AMWJU: Resolutions
  • ICERME-2021: Intl Conference on SDG-7
  • Law in Motion : Basics of Law
  • Discussion on Koubru Chinggoirol #2
  • COVID-19 Status 14 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • COVID-19 Status 13 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Lui-Ngai-Ni - Naga Seed Sowing Festival
  • Wung-Hao of Tangkhul & Chinese Counterpart
  • World War II, INA & Manipuri Literature #1
  • 3rd Jump Rope Championship : Result
  • My memories of Imphal from 1941 #17
  • Book: Manipur-Myanmar connections: Gallery
  • Mushroom training at Tentha Heibung
  • Workshop on GeoGebra at IISER Bhopal
  • Indian Women & Maths annual conference
  • Walking through final lap of my life :: Poem
  • Can BJP strategy win in Tamil Nadu ?
  • Granting minority status to Meitei
  • Snowfall at Shirui, Ukhrul #1 : Gallery
  • Shanti Thokchom's Life Experiences #44
  • Inspection at Kangla & Cheiraoching : Gallery
  • Protection of tribal land in Manipur #1
  • Oxford and Aatmanirbharta
  • Education in Mother Tongue will strengthen
  • Impressive shows from young MLAs
  • If it is for the people...
  • Ipudhou Pakhangba Puruksoubi #1 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 11 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Relief at Yangkhullen, Senapati: Gallery
  • Restored Wetland : Yaralpat
  • Appeal: WG to monitor crime against women
  • Distress Relief at Yangkhullen, Senapati
  • Sensitization on constitutional obligation
  • ST demand for the Meiteis
  • Democratisation of Education
  • Licypriya in 'Forbes 30 Under 30' List 2021
  • COVID-19 Status 10 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Sushila, Indubala selected for Asian Judo
  • RIST Talk 48 : Microplastic is everywhere
  • Productivity revolution of farmers in Manipur
  • NEC Secretary meeting with CM Manipur
  • Valentine's Day beauty tips
  • College teachers on strike!
  • Are you fooling people of Manipur Mr FM
  • RK Jhalajit's contribution in historiography
  • COVID-19 Status 09 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Keibul Lamjao: today in deplorable state
  • Nadda's hailing 'War On Drugs' Campaign
  • Sachi Gurumayum called on CM
  • She really can be trusted for fiscal prudence
  • Child Marriage: Stigma for a civilized society
  • Fate of hostellers
  • Ema Gi Wari by Imphal Talkies : Review
  • COVID-19 Status 08 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Projects Inauguration - Tamenglong: Gallery
  • Budget: Perspective on Gender Budget
  • NPF meeting with NSCN (K-Niki)
  • Mushroom training program at Nagamapal
  • Solace me, chap ! :: Poem
  • Active cases below 3 figure mark
  • Mother Nature is still unhappy
  • Discussion on Koubru Chinggoirol #1
  • COVID-19 Status 07 Feb : Govt of Manipur
  • Packaged Organic Product launch : Gallery
  • Naga American announces Scholarship
  • Prize distribution for 9th MANIFA held
  • Range of options to prevent HIV is key
  • Paoyi village setting an example
  • Churachand Maharajgi Imung : Gallery
  • Churachand Maharajgi Imung published
  • Grab the given opportunities
  • A poet :: Poem
  • Supports farmers' movement call
  • Gaan-Ngai @ Iboyaima Shanglen #3 : Gallery
  • Financing burden of lifestyle diseases in NE
  • A budget that lays foundation for growth
  • Sports & Physical Fitness as career choice
  • Volunteers' Meet at Irong Bazar
  • Limping towards the New Normal
  • Is India prepared for Chinese aggression?
  • Re-openning of schools #2 : Gallery
  • Is Compulsive Shopping a Mental Disorder ?
  • Ex-Tempore Competition at Lilong
  • My hundred deaths :: Poem
  • Fragile - Handle with care !
  • My memories of Imphal from 1941 #16
  • The ring has finally arrived!
  • Study of growing traffic congestion in Imphal
  • World Wetlands Day 2021
  • Bringing Equality for Women in Armed Forces
  • Ima Keithels: Closed since March 21
  • Imoinu Erat Thouni @ Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • Understanding panic disorder
  • Life, It is ! :: Poem
  • A pinch of blessing with a tonne of a curse
  • COVID-19 combine to clobber MSME sector
  • Single digit spike of just 4 in last 24 hrs
  • Impact in India after coup in Myanmar
  • Remembering Kuki singer Benny Khongsai
  • Was Netaji really in Manipur ?
  • Environmental impacts of COVID-19 pandemic
  • Memo to CM concerning transportation
  • Gaan-Ngai @ Iboyaima Shanglen #2 : Gallery
  • Gaan-Ngai @ Iboyaima Shanglen #1 : Gallery
  • Naga Peace Process :: News Timeline
  • COVID-19 vaccination [Jan 16] #2 : Gallery
  • COVID-19 vaccination [Jan 16] #1 : Gallery
  • Downloadable Manipuri Calendar :: 2021
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2020 #6: Gallery
  • Sory Wahengbam - Actress Gallery :: eRang
  • 'Zehara' - Manipuri Movie :: eRang Classic
  • SPONSORED ADS