Time for India to do a rethink on its balancing act
- The People's Chronicle Editorial :: November 11, 2023 -

EVEN as the attention of everyone in the tiny northeastern Indian state Manipur remains fixated on the ethnic conflict between the Meitei/Meetei and Kuki-Chin communities which has been raging since May 3 last, losing sight of the unfolding crisis in the neighbouring country Myanmar is going to spell doom for everyone including the people of the two warring communities.

With surge in attacks by pro-democracy and ethnic minority insurgent groups on its bases in the north, northeast, northwest and southeast, the military junta in Myanmar is currently facing the biggest challenge to its authority since it seized power in a coup in February, 2012.

The current situation in Myanmar is so dire that alarm bells have been sounded by none other than Myint Swe himself, who is the pro-tem president of the junta-backed State Administration Council (SAC).

Multiple news sources have quoted him saying, "If the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts," during a meeting of the national defence and security council held at the office of State Administration Council Chairman in Nay Pyi Taw on November 8.

Coming from the mouth of a military ruler, who would normally talk tough, this warning has shown that the military junta in Myanmar is today facing a serious setback due to ineffective management of recent violence in its border regions with China, where the military junta has lost control of some of the most important trading towns to the Brotherhood Alliance of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA) since the Operation 1027 began on October 27 last with strong backing from other resistance groups like People's Defense Force groups (PDFs) under the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) and the powerful ethnic armed revolutionary group Kachin Independence Army (KIA).

One may ask what all these events that are taking place in neighbouring Myanmar have got to do with the people of Manipur, who themselves are grappling with an unprecedented humanitarian crisis as a fallout of the ethnic conflict between the Meitei/Meetei and Kuki-Chin communities that has been going on for more than six months now with no sign of any solution.

The truth is that the spillover effect of the political turmoil and resultant violence in Myanmar that has already stabilised internal security of Manipur is not only going to worsen but also spread to other northeastern Indian states which share long porous border with the neighbouring country.

There have been already reports of significant influx of displaced people including parliamentarians, civil servants, and activists from Myanmar and seeking safety and shelter in the bordering Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Mizoram, and of course, Manipur. As per an assessment report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) dated 15/07/2023, India is currently hosting over 74,600 refugees from Myanmar, which is more than an estimated 54,100 of whom arrived since the coup in February 2012.

These include over 40,000 Myanmarese refugees living in Mizoram and 8,250 in Manipur as of May 1, 2023 as per the assessment of UNHCR dated 11/05/2023.

So, the continuation of armed clashes between military troops of Tatmadaw and anti-regime groups is going to generate more heat, not just within the neighbouring country, but also in the bordering states of India.

With the anti-regime groups now having the upper hand with a series of successful co-ordinated attacks on military posts and capturing strategic towns as well as all the key trade routes with China, the Red Dragon has also woken up with a roar.

Perhaps, it's time for India to do a rethink on its balancing act with Myanmar and strengthen its border to avoid another catastrophe like the one that is being witnessed in Manipur today.