TODAY -

Where is Burma Headed after Election?

By Nehginpao Kipgen *

There has been a lingering question as to what might happen after a general election in Burma, which is scheduled for November 7. The military junta has so far been successful in its manipulated game of an expected easy victory.

As a keen observer on the Burmese political developments, I have noticed two visibly school of thoughts on what the November election might bring to Burma. Some believe that the election is a step toward establishing a stable democratic society, while others see it as a carefully orchestrated political game to entrench military power in civilian clothes.

With a lesson learnt from the devastating defeat in the 1990 general election, the military employs every available state resources to ensure their victory. Indeed, it does not need a scientific method to predict the likely outcome of the almost forgone conclusion. During the 1990 election, the military-backed National Unity Party won only 10 seats, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) surprised the entire echelon of the military with its landslide victory, winning over 80 percent of the parliamentary votes.

Even before anyone goes to the poll, post-election scenario is predictable from how the 2008 constitution was adopted i.e. 25 percent of parliamentary seats are reserved for the military. The same constitution also stipulates that any amendment to the constitution must be approved by over 75 percent of the parliamentary votes.

Another guarantee for the military win is the dissolution of its main rival party, the NLD. Any political scientist can undoubtedly say that Aung San Suu Kyi is one individual feared most by the military leadership, and perhaps there are some who respect or despise her as well.

There are two important reasons why Suu Kyi is secluded by the junta. First, she enjoys the overwhelming support of the Burmese people. This support is due to a combination of several factors, including her charismatic leadership, courage, and determination; and she being the daughter of Aung San (the man who led the negotiation of Burma’s independence from the British). Second, it is because of her international fame and support for leading a non-violent democratic movement.

The Junta has successfully prevented Suu Kyi from running the election, and also disbanded her party i.e. the NLD. By doing so, the military finishes the first big task of its electoral politics.

The second and bigger concern is to garner international legitimacy for the flawed election. To achieve this goal, the military junta chief, General Than Shwe, visited India in July, and China in September. Winning the support of these two Asian giants, which both have strong economic interests, is critically important for the military leadership. Given the nature of their cordial relationships, there is no doubt that a communist state and a democratic state will readily recognize the results of the election.

The international community will continue to have differing opinions. Some will welcome the results of the election, while some will say it is short of international standard. China, India, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations will be some of the first nations to welcome the result, while Western democracies will criticize the outcome.

It is intriguing to see where Burma is heading after election. One thing, however, is clear that Burma is transitioning to a parliamentary form of government, under which Than Shwe will still have the ultimate power, at least for the next few years. Transition, indeed, has begun.

On October 21, the military changed Burma’s national flag, national anthem, and official name of the country. It was in 1989, the military changed the country name from the Union of Burma to the Union of Myanmar. Its new official name is called the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, though it is not a republic state yet.

For Than Shwe, security for his family and close associates is extremely important for the remaining of his life. Under no circumstances, Than Shwe would like to end up his life like the former military leader, General Ne Win, who was placed under house arrest in the final days of his life. Neither Than Shwe will like to end up like Slobodan Milosevic, who was charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Tribunal.

Than Shwe wants to transform Burma without having to face for the crimes he and his cohorts committed. Indonesian transition is something Than Shwe ponders. Like General Suharto of Indonesia, Than Shwe wants to develop a new political structure in which the elites will ensure his safety.

Note: The article was first published in The Brunei Times and Irrawaddy Magazine..


Nehginpao Kipgen


* Nehginpao Kipgen is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004) and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). He has written numerous analytical articles on the politics of Burma and Asia that have been widely published in five continents (Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America). He currently pursues a Ph.D. in Political Science at Northern Illinois University.
He can be contacted at nehginpao(at)yahoo(dot)com. This article was webcasted on November 04, 2010.



* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of e-pao.net. We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.




LATEST IN E-PAO.NET
  • A Voice From Khurkhul
  • Violence in Manipur 2023 :: News Timeline
  • Has appeasement towards Kuki backfired ?
  • Roaring through the Frontier
  • 3rd June is World Bicycle Day
  • Witnessing the resurgence
  • Setting the narratives right
  • Pinning hope on judicial probe to end crisis
  • Human-chain @ Keishampat #1 : Gallery
  • Wanted : The Idea of Manipur
  • Post of DGP Manipur
  • Fallout a legacy of colonial British rule #2
  • Workshop: Integration of Communication
  • Union Home Minister's visit is a step too late
  • Manipur in flames since one month
  • Random use of firearms debunks communal
  • Amit Shah visit to Manipur [31 May] : Gallery
  • Fallout a legacy of colonial British rule #1
  • Day 3 report of Amit Shah's visit
  • 8000 surrender since 2014; Manipur burning
  • Breast Cancer! What all you need to know
  • No magic formula spelt out
  • Armed attacks corroborate irrelevance of ST
  • Singju Fest @Heingang #2 : Gallery
  • June Calendar for Year 2023 : Tools
  • Memorandum to Union Home Minister
  • Condemned Vandal, Media Misinformation
  • The voice of India's traditional handlooms
  • Amit Shah in town
  • Task cut out for Centre to prevent battle
  • A family of painters & their works
  • Peace first - Solution next
  • Concern over ongoing ethnic violence
  • Condemnation of Act by Armed Militants
  • Nation building through Jan Bhagidari
  • Playing the victim card
  • Internet ban serving no real purpose
  • Relief camp @ Khundrakpam #2 : Gallery
  • How Nehru accepted ... a religious head
  • Observation of present unrest in Manipur #2
  • When rage hijacks sanity
  • Why internationationalisation of education
  • A case of Nero fiddled while Rome burnt ?
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #4
  • The Good Old Days :: Poem
  • Status of Mithun farming in NE
  • Beauty essentials for your holiday
  • Chaudhary Charan: The Voice of Rural India
  • Manipur crisis on centre's menu, at last
  • Curfew : Night time in Imphal : Gallery
  • Manipur turmoil - Dynamics and misgivings
  • Debate on Art 371-C, new facet to violence
  • Sausage as a value added product
  • Gender & anti-corruption : G-20 Agenda
  • Waiting for the Union Home Minister
  • Insecurity among MLAs as violence continues
  • Advanced INA Headquarters, Moirang #2
  • Mt. Khangchendzonga and me
  • Awakening call to our leaders :: Poem
  • The unseen costs of Internet shutdown
  • An open letter to PM Narendra Modi
  • Best choice of career options after 12th Arts
  • Time to think for the children
  • Gunmen loose in foothill, military in city
  • Sit-in-Protest [21 May] : Gallery
  • Manipur situation mentioned at UN
  • Observation of present unrest in Manipur #1
  • Man, woman, sex, sexuality and the truth
  • Japanese koi fish: Farming in Manipur
  • Khurakki Eena Lai Saba
  • Time to tilt the balance
  • The Story of Leishemba : Fungga Wari #2
  • Press Meet at Dispur Press Club, Guwahati
  • Condemns assault on media by armed forces
  • What/who is tearing Manipur apart ?
  • The fast & ugly spread on social media
  • Separate admin call: Acceptable to the Nagas?
  • Task for men in uniform to restore peace
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Science
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Arts
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Commerce
  • Why should Meitei be included in ST list?
  • Books are our Best Friends
  • Forced peace not viable line
  • Expansionism agenda at play
  • Sit-in-Protest @ Ima Keithel : Gallery
  • International Tea Day : Jimli
  • CSO meet at Manipuri Basti, Guwahati
  • History - A New Perspective :: Poem
  • Posers to New Delhi and Imphal
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #3
  • Silent murmurs longing for answers
  • Perturbed about the future of Manipur
  • Take immediate action to bring normalcy
  • Can Myanmar-B'desh cooperate in disaster
  • Reopen national highways before it's too late
  • Tree's greatest strength lie in its roots
  • Press Conference at Press Club of India
  • Solidarity meet in support of women wrestlers
  • Management of Fall Armyworm
  • Benefit & drawback of Taka-Rupee exchange
  • Time to set right the narrative
  • Sit-in-Protest in Imphal : Gallery
  • Writer of 'CCpur da khundariba Meetei sing'
  • Landing in Sikkim, 1983
  • Request for lifting ban on Internet
  • Farm income through efficient farm mgmt #2
  • Condemns rape of a minor girl in Assam
  • SoO pact under scanner
  • Price of cooked up stories & hatred
  • Angamba & Samuel: Friendship beyond riot
  • Supreme Court ruling on Manipur High Court
  • Bijou Thangjam in Kannada film: Chilli Chicken
  • Do you want a "New Nagaland" ?
  • Our nurses, our future
  • Attempt to seize ancestral Meetei land
  • Significant stand of TNL
  • Relief camp @ Khundrakpam #1 : Gallery
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2023 #2: Gallery
  • Instigating violence for narrow political gain
  • Agri-Tourism: Approach to rural development
  • Manipur on the boil since May 3
  • Time for introspection on communal riot
  • Ground assessment to expose riot plotters
  • Relief camp @ Moirang #2 : Gallery
  • Appeal to people who are blocking highway
  • Plantation drive of medicinal plants
  • People spirit to help each other shone bright
  • Useful tips for healthy teeth & a happy smile
  • Suspension of internet
  • Violence subsides, tension persists
  • The Story of Leishemba : Fungga Wari #1
  • Mother's Day calls for Peace
  • Farm income through efficient farm mgmt #1
  • Nari Shakti : Empowering the Nation
  • From streets to political corridor
  • Onus on SF to justify normalcy claims
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #2
  • Impact of Internet Ban on Students
  • An open letter to citizens of Manipur
  • Help Rebuild Manipur
  • Nutrition garden for food security
  • Condemns lack of efforts by state govt
  • Curtain Story
  • Shirui Lily Fest 2022 #2 : Gallery
  • The only way forward is peaceful coexistence
  • Advancing Indo-Naga peace process
  • The courage to be 'yourself'
  • Mass culturing technique of nematode
  • 3 decades of Panchayati Raj Institutions
  • Blacking out stand of 10 MLAs
  • Need to present a strong case
  • Bye to cashless transactions for now
  • Accelerate probe into communal clash
  • Mithingai Amagi Meeshi @ Drama : Gallery
  • Fight to end corporate capture of healthcare
  • Mother to all :: Poem
  • International Nurses Day - 12 May
  • NPF condemns same sex Marriage: Azo
  • Commercialized artificial insemination in pig
  • Not all in designated camps
  • Relief camp @ Moirang #1 : Gallery
  • Mass gathering for peace & harmony at Pune
  • Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind :: Rvw
  • 'Demographic threat' to indigenous inhabitant
  • Galvanising Swachh Bharat Abhiyan
  • Uneasy calm as state limps back to normalcy
  • Probe inevitable to expose mayhem instigator
  • Time to focus on rehabilitation
  • Spare women and children, medical
  • Kangkum Village in Kamjong : Gallery
  • Appeal to all the people of Manipur
  • Genesis of Manipur crisis
  • Of people and communities
  • Scholarship for civil service aspirants
  • Understanding IES/ISS Examinations
  • Catalyst & solutions to ethnic clashes
  • Appeal to restore normalcy in Manipur
  • We need groundwater in Manipur
  • Just a little courage for the word 'No'
  • Working journalist movement
  • To SC against HC directive
  • 'Peace Appeal' by Women of Northeast
  • Celebrities urge national media not to publish...
  • To our Brothers and Sisters in Manipur
  • Calling for peace and relief
  • Importance of post harvest technology
  • Watermelon a Summer fruit
  • From May 3, 1993 to the present
  • COVID-19 : Impact in Manipur :: News Timeline
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #1
  • Ishanou : Film recognised as World Classic
  • Meghalaya government launches helpline
  • Manipur & NE - PM's favourite on MKB
  • Comfort Zone and Days of Yore :: Poem
  • Singiri Kona, the solitude Narasimha Temple
  • Advanced INA Headquarters, Moirang #1
  • Candle light vigil at Delhi
  • Restore calm & prevent further escalation
  • Appeal to give up violence
  • Refrain from violence
  • How to go for quick revision for JEE Advanced
  • It is not Tribals Vs Meiteis
  • MANITEX @ Nilakuthi #5 : Gallery
  • Designers : Interact with creative leaders
  • An appeal for peace
  • Call for cessation of violence
  • Appeals for communal harmony, peace
  • Mopping approach is not enough to end TB
  • An Ode to my House :: Poem
  • Suspending social media services
  • Three Mothers Art Gallery : Wood Art
  • Public Curfew Orders in Manipur
  • Use of drugs & precaution in Veterinary
  • COVID-19 Status 03 May : Govt of Manipur
  • Legal Aid Defense Counsel System Thoubal
  • Colposcopy, LEEP Services launched
  • Careers in improving public health
  • 30th Anniversary of Pangal's Black Day
  • Tension simmers as ST demand, eviction...
  • Opposition to ST demand for Meiteis
  • Lui-ngai-ni@ Chandel #2 : Gallery
  • The phenomenon that is Radhakumar
  • COVID-19 Status 02 May : Govt of Manipur
  • Jobs @ CNBT worklinksystem, Imphal
  • Press Freedom Day: Journalism independence
  • Legal Aid Defense Counsel System Bishnupur
  • Value addition to fish in the context of NE #3
  • PM Modi's Mann Ki Baat reaping fruit
  • Politics along community line
  • Gakripu : A Naga Folk Tale
  • COVID-19 Status 01 May : Govt of Manipur
  • MKF at C20 Conclave in Sikkim
  • Workshop : Youth20 Engagement group
  • Lament over peace process stretching 25 yrs
  • Wind of Change
  • Khongjom Day @ Khebaching : Gallery
  • 100th Episode of 'Maan Ki Baat' : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 30 April : Govt of Manipur
  • ADB financing in Manipur & accountability
  • 'Mann Ki Baat' screening at Raj Bhavan
  • Embracing Chaos in Jewelled Land :: Poem
  • Same sex marriage & popu control
  • Education commissioner take on Govt teacher
  • Wetland conservation needs holistic approach
  • My Memories of Imphal #20 : Download
  • Ranjeet Chingtham : Martial art performer
  • Id-ul-Fitr @ Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • Thabal Competition #3 : Gallery
  • Lembi Leima :: Movie Review
  • N Tombi's contribution to Anganghal #4
  • Research Officer @ Amethyst
  • Ningtam Lan Ningshing Numit : Gallery
  • Shajibu Cheiraoba @ Pune : Gallery
  • Mangka tour of Switzerland & France : Gallery
  • Sajibu Cheiraoba Chak Katpa #2 : Gallery
  • Houses @ Thalon, Tamenglong #2 : Gallery
  • English Pronouncing Skills : Book Download
  • Downloadable Manipuri Calendar for 2023