TODAY -

Burmese Politics Post NLD's Overwhelming Electoral Victory

By Nehginpao Kipgen *

Aung San Suu Kyi addressing her supporters after election win in the first week of April 2012
Aung San Suu Kyi addressing her supporters after election win in the first week of April 2012



On April 1, 2012, Burma had its second election in less than two years. Numerically, the by-election result was substantially insignificant compared to the general election conducted on November 7, 2010. The by-election was held in 45 parliamentary constituencies, vacated by members of parliament who assumed different ministerial positions in the government.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) secured an overwhelming victory, winning 43 out of the 44 parliamentary seats it contested, which is over 95 percent of the total 45 available seats. Although in a lesser number of constituencies, the NLD performed better than the 1990 general election in which it won over 80%. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured only one seat, in a constituency where the NLD candidate was disqualified.

There have been high hopes and optimism about the progress of democratization. The by-election was significant for several reasons.

Firstly, the NLD, which boycotted the 2010 general election, participated in the electoral process. Secondly, the election itself was one important benchmark for the Western nations to review their sanctions policy. Thirdly, the Burmese government wanted to improve its legitimacy and credibility.

If one looks at the poll result, it is undoubtedly an absolute victory for the NLD party. Does that mean a political defeat for USDP and the military? What does the USDP-led government gain from the election? The more interesting question is understanding which direction the Burmese politics is headed in.

In recent years, the Burmese government's political objective has been to convince the international community to believe in its seven-step road map toward democracy. The government's goal was to achieve its objective without sacrificing the dominant role of military in politics.

While the Western sanctions played important role in pressuring the Burmese government toward democratic reforms, the authoritarian regime came under immense pressure following the "Arab Spring," especially in Egypt and Libya in 2011, where mass uprising successfully forced the demise of two powerful dictatorial regimes.

The top leadership in the Burmese military hierarchy was also gravely concerned about the possibility of instituting an international commission of inquiry into suspected war crimes and crimes against humanity, which was recommended by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Burma, Tomás Ojea Quintana, in 2010, and supported by the United States and 15 other nations.

The government's desire to chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was one other important reason why the military leadership forced itself to improve in the areas of human rights and other democratic reforms. All these political developments happened after the 2008 constitution was ratified in a referendum, which entrenched the military as the ultimate power.

It is important to understand that the by-election result is also the success of the military's carefully orchestrated political strategy. The NLD's participation in the by-election means that the party has officially abandoned its long-time fundamental demand for the recognition of the 1990 general election result. By participating in the election, the NLD has also boosted the military's attempts to legitimize its power. Some may call this a political compromise.

With just over 6% of parliamentary seats, the NLD falls far short of making a significant impact on balance of power in the parliament. However, the NLD can utilize its presence in the parliament as a foundation to prepare for the next general election.

Currently, both the parliament and the government are indirectly controlled by the military through the country's constitution, which automatically reserves 25% of parliamentary seats for the military without any election.

Moreover, for any constitutional amendment, the approval of more than 75% of parliamentary votes is required. One major challenge to democratic values is the provision that empowers the military to assume power at times of national emergency. It is unclear as to whether the military would abuse its constitutionally guaranteed power to suppress the voice of the opposition.

With the NLD's overwhelming electoral victory, the Western nations would feel obligated to review their sanctions policy. In light of the ongoing developments, the Western governments will gradually ease and eventually lift sanctions, provided the current pattern of reforms continues.

Foreign policy change has begun with the United States, one of Burma's long-time fiercest critics, announcement of easing some restrictions on investments and the nomination of Derek J. Mitchell, Special Representative and Policy Coordinator for Burma, as its new ambassador.

A major political debate will evolve in the parliament on several key issues, including the principles of the 2008 constitution. The NLD and other like-minded parties will be vocal about the necessity to amend some basic principles of the constitution. However, many in the USDP and the military leadership will be hesitant to compromise on the subject, at least in the near future.

The pace of democratization process still largely remains in the hands of the military. Currently, one of the biggest lingering concerns for the former military generals is their own security. There is a chance of political reconciliation in the coming years if the military is convinced that a civilian government would not initiate punitive actions to revenge the past actions of successive military regimes.

More importantly, the success of the ongoing democratic reforms would greatly depend on the progress of government's peace initiatives with the country's ethnic minorities. Cease-fire agreements with armed groups by themselves are inconclusive. Some sort of political autonomy is essential to establish mutual trust between the central government and ethnic minority groups. The provisions of such political arrangement must be guaranteed in the constitution, by identifying state and union subjects.

While restoring ties with the Burmese government, the international community must understand the root of Burma's decades-old conflicts.

It is neither the confrontation between the military and the NLD, nor a power struggle between retired General Than Shwe and NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi. It is because of lack of mutual trust and denial of equality of rights to all citizens.

Both Prime Minister Thein Sein's government and the opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi must continue to take steps to address the root cause of the country's myriad problems. Simultaneously, the ethnic minorities must demonstrate sincerity and seriousness to the process, while not surrendering its core demand for autonomy and equality of rights.

Democratization without reconciliation with ethnic minorities will not bring lasting peace and stability to Burma.

The article first appeared in Jerusalem Post, Asia Times, and Korea Times.


Nehginpao Kipgen


* Nehginpao Kipgen wrote this article for The Sangai Express. The writer is a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma/Myanmar and general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum (www.kukiforum.com). He has written numerous academic (peer-reviewed) and non-academic analytical articles on the politics of Burma and Asia that have been widely published in five continents - Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America. . This article was webcasted on April 15, 2012.



* Comments posted by users in this discussion thread and other parts of this site are opinions of the individuals posting them (whose user ID is displayed alongside) and not the views of e-pao.net. We strongly recommend that users exercise responsibility, sensitivity and caution over language while writing your opinions which will be seen and read by other users. Please read a complete Guideline on using comments on this website.




LATEST IN E-PAO.NET
  • A Voice From Khurkhul
  • Violence in Manipur 2023 :: News Timeline
  • Has appeasement towards Kuki backfired ?
  • Roaring through the Frontier
  • 3rd June is World Bicycle Day
  • Witnessing the resurgence
  • Setting the narratives right
  • Pinning hope on judicial probe to end crisis
  • Human-chain @ Keishampat #1 : Gallery
  • Wanted : The Idea of Manipur
  • Post of DGP Manipur
  • Fallout a legacy of colonial British rule #2
  • Workshop: Integration of Communication
  • Union Home Minister's visit is a step too late
  • Manipur in flames since one month
  • Random use of firearms debunks communal
  • Amit Shah visit to Manipur [31 May] : Gallery
  • Fallout a legacy of colonial British rule #1
  • Day 3 report of Amit Shah's visit
  • 8000 surrender since 2014; Manipur burning
  • Breast Cancer! What all you need to know
  • No magic formula spelt out
  • Armed attacks corroborate irrelevance of ST
  • Singju Fest @Heingang #2 : Gallery
  • June Calendar for Year 2023 : Tools
  • Memorandum to Union Home Minister
  • Condemned Vandal, Media Misinformation
  • The voice of India's traditional handlooms
  • Amit Shah in town
  • Task cut out for Centre to prevent battle
  • A family of painters & their works
  • Peace first - Solution next
  • Concern over ongoing ethnic violence
  • Condemnation of Act by Armed Militants
  • Nation building through Jan Bhagidari
  • Playing the victim card
  • Internet ban serving no real purpose
  • Relief camp @ Khundrakpam #2 : Gallery
  • How Nehru accepted ... a religious head
  • Observation of present unrest in Manipur #2
  • When rage hijacks sanity
  • Why internationationalisation of education
  • A case of Nero fiddled while Rome burnt ?
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #4
  • The Good Old Days :: Poem
  • Status of Mithun farming in NE
  • Beauty essentials for your holiday
  • Chaudhary Charan: The Voice of Rural India
  • Manipur crisis on centre's menu, at last
  • Curfew : Night time in Imphal : Gallery
  • Manipur turmoil - Dynamics and misgivings
  • Debate on Art 371-C, new facet to violence
  • Sausage as a value added product
  • Gender & anti-corruption : G-20 Agenda
  • Waiting for the Union Home Minister
  • Insecurity among MLAs as violence continues
  • Advanced INA Headquarters, Moirang #2
  • Mt. Khangchendzonga and me
  • Awakening call to our leaders :: Poem
  • The unseen costs of Internet shutdown
  • An open letter to PM Narendra Modi
  • Best choice of career options after 12th Arts
  • Time to think for the children
  • Gunmen loose in foothill, military in city
  • Sit-in-Protest [21 May] : Gallery
  • Manipur situation mentioned at UN
  • Observation of present unrest in Manipur #1
  • Man, woman, sex, sexuality and the truth
  • Japanese koi fish: Farming in Manipur
  • Khurakki Eena Lai Saba
  • Time to tilt the balance
  • The Story of Leishemba : Fungga Wari #2
  • Press Meet at Dispur Press Club, Guwahati
  • Condemns assault on media by armed forces
  • What/who is tearing Manipur apart ?
  • The fast & ugly spread on social media
  • Separate admin call: Acceptable to the Nagas?
  • Task for men in uniform to restore peace
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Science
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Arts
  • HSE 2023 Toppers :: Commerce
  • Why should Meitei be included in ST list?
  • Books are our Best Friends
  • Forced peace not viable line
  • Expansionism agenda at play
  • Sit-in-Protest @ Ima Keithel : Gallery
  • International Tea Day : Jimli
  • CSO meet at Manipuri Basti, Guwahati
  • History - A New Perspective :: Poem
  • Posers to New Delhi and Imphal
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #3
  • Silent murmurs longing for answers
  • Perturbed about the future of Manipur
  • Take immediate action to bring normalcy
  • Can Myanmar-B'desh cooperate in disaster
  • Reopen national highways before it's too late
  • Tree's greatest strength lie in its roots
  • Press Conference at Press Club of India
  • Solidarity meet in support of women wrestlers
  • Management of Fall Armyworm
  • Benefit & drawback of Taka-Rupee exchange
  • Time to set right the narrative
  • Sit-in-Protest in Imphal : Gallery
  • Writer of 'CCpur da khundariba Meetei sing'
  • Landing in Sikkim, 1983
  • Request for lifting ban on Internet
  • Farm income through efficient farm mgmt #2
  • Condemns rape of a minor girl in Assam
  • SoO pact under scanner
  • Price of cooked up stories & hatred
  • Angamba & Samuel: Friendship beyond riot
  • Supreme Court ruling on Manipur High Court
  • Bijou Thangjam in Kannada film: Chilli Chicken
  • Do you want a "New Nagaland" ?
  • Our nurses, our future
  • Attempt to seize ancestral Meetei land
  • Significant stand of TNL
  • Relief camp @ Khundrakpam #1 : Gallery
  • Featured Front Page Photo 2023 #2: Gallery
  • Instigating violence for narrow political gain
  • Agri-Tourism: Approach to rural development
  • Manipur on the boil since May 3
  • Time for introspection on communal riot
  • Ground assessment to expose riot plotters
  • Relief camp @ Moirang #2 : Gallery
  • Appeal to people who are blocking highway
  • Plantation drive of medicinal plants
  • People spirit to help each other shone bright
  • Useful tips for healthy teeth & a happy smile
  • Suspension of internet
  • Violence subsides, tension persists
  • The Story of Leishemba : Fungga Wari #1
  • Mother's Day calls for Peace
  • Farm income through efficient farm mgmt #1
  • Nari Shakti : Empowering the Nation
  • From streets to political corridor
  • Onus on SF to justify normalcy claims
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #2
  • Impact of Internet Ban on Students
  • An open letter to citizens of Manipur
  • Help Rebuild Manipur
  • Nutrition garden for food security
  • Condemns lack of efforts by state govt
  • Curtain Story
  • Shirui Lily Fest 2022 #2 : Gallery
  • The only way forward is peaceful coexistence
  • Advancing Indo-Naga peace process
  • The courage to be 'yourself'
  • Mass culturing technique of nematode
  • 3 decades of Panchayati Raj Institutions
  • Blacking out stand of 10 MLAs
  • Need to present a strong case
  • Bye to cashless transactions for now
  • Accelerate probe into communal clash
  • Mithingai Amagi Meeshi @ Drama : Gallery
  • Fight to end corporate capture of healthcare
  • Mother to all :: Poem
  • International Nurses Day - 12 May
  • NPF condemns same sex Marriage: Azo
  • Commercialized artificial insemination in pig
  • Not all in designated camps
  • Relief camp @ Moirang #1 : Gallery
  • Mass gathering for peace & harmony at Pune
  • Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind :: Rvw
  • 'Demographic threat' to indigenous inhabitant
  • Galvanising Swachh Bharat Abhiyan
  • Uneasy calm as state limps back to normalcy
  • Probe inevitable to expose mayhem instigator
  • Time to focus on rehabilitation
  • Spare women and children, medical
  • Kangkum Village in Kamjong : Gallery
  • Appeal to all the people of Manipur
  • Genesis of Manipur crisis
  • Of people and communities
  • Scholarship for civil service aspirants
  • Understanding IES/ISS Examinations
  • Catalyst & solutions to ethnic clashes
  • Appeal to restore normalcy in Manipur
  • We need groundwater in Manipur
  • Just a little courage for the word 'No'
  • Working journalist movement
  • To SC against HC directive
  • 'Peace Appeal' by Women of Northeast
  • Celebrities urge national media not to publish...
  • To our Brothers and Sisters in Manipur
  • Calling for peace and relief
  • Importance of post harvest technology
  • Watermelon a Summer fruit
  • From May 3, 1993 to the present
  • COVID-19 : Impact in Manipur :: News Timeline
  • Beginning of Life in the UK #1
  • Ishanou : Film recognised as World Classic
  • Meghalaya government launches helpline
  • Manipur & NE - PM's favourite on MKB
  • Comfort Zone and Days of Yore :: Poem
  • Singiri Kona, the solitude Narasimha Temple
  • Advanced INA Headquarters, Moirang #1
  • Candle light vigil at Delhi
  • Restore calm & prevent further escalation
  • Appeal to give up violence
  • Refrain from violence
  • How to go for quick revision for JEE Advanced
  • It is not Tribals Vs Meiteis
  • MANITEX @ Nilakuthi #5 : Gallery
  • Designers : Interact with creative leaders
  • An appeal for peace
  • Call for cessation of violence
  • Appeals for communal harmony, peace
  • Mopping approach is not enough to end TB
  • An Ode to my House :: Poem
  • Suspending social media services
  • Three Mothers Art Gallery : Wood Art
  • Public Curfew Orders in Manipur
  • Use of drugs & precaution in Veterinary
  • COVID-19 Status 03 May : Govt of Manipur
  • Legal Aid Defense Counsel System Thoubal
  • Colposcopy, LEEP Services launched
  • Careers in improving public health
  • 30th Anniversary of Pangal's Black Day
  • Tension simmers as ST demand, eviction...
  • Opposition to ST demand for Meiteis
  • Lui-ngai-ni@ Chandel #2 : Gallery
  • The phenomenon that is Radhakumar
  • COVID-19 Status 02 May : Govt of Manipur
  • Jobs @ CNBT worklinksystem, Imphal
  • Press Freedom Day: Journalism independence
  • Legal Aid Defense Counsel System Bishnupur
  • Value addition to fish in the context of NE #3
  • PM Modi's Mann Ki Baat reaping fruit
  • Politics along community line
  • Gakripu : A Naga Folk Tale
  • COVID-19 Status 01 May : Govt of Manipur
  • MKF at C20 Conclave in Sikkim
  • Workshop : Youth20 Engagement group
  • Lament over peace process stretching 25 yrs
  • Wind of Change
  • Khongjom Day @ Khebaching : Gallery
  • 100th Episode of 'Maan Ki Baat' : Gallery
  • COVID-19 Status 30 April : Govt of Manipur
  • ADB financing in Manipur & accountability
  • 'Mann Ki Baat' screening at Raj Bhavan
  • Embracing Chaos in Jewelled Land :: Poem
  • Same sex marriage & popu control
  • Education commissioner take on Govt teacher
  • Wetland conservation needs holistic approach
  • My Memories of Imphal #20 : Download
  • Ranjeet Chingtham : Martial art performer
  • Id-ul-Fitr @ Imphal #2 : Gallery
  • Thabal Competition #3 : Gallery
  • Lembi Leima :: Movie Review
  • N Tombi's contribution to Anganghal #4
  • Research Officer @ Amethyst
  • Ningtam Lan Ningshing Numit : Gallery
  • Shajibu Cheiraoba @ Pune : Gallery
  • Mangka tour of Switzerland & France : Gallery
  • Sajibu Cheiraoba Chak Katpa #2 : Gallery
  • Houses @ Thalon, Tamenglong #2 : Gallery
  • English Pronouncing Skills : Book Download
  • Downloadable Manipuri Calendar for 2023