Look East policy-Manipur India's Gateway to South East Asia

Prof E Bijoykumar *

Indo-Myanmar Friendship Road at Moreh, Indo-Myanmar Border Town in January 2012 :: Pix - Jinendra Maibam

This was a session in the seminar "Manipur: The Road Ahead" organised by State Academy of Training, Govt. of Manipur held on July 1, 2013 at Classic Hotel. It was part of a seminar as brainstorming as one can get to be. The seminar also covered human capital, information technology, climate change, social capital, social security, hydropower and services sector. The speakers were senior bureaucrats, entrepreneurs and academicians. The session on LEP was chaired by O.Nabakishore Singh, IAS, Principal Secretary, Commerce and Industries, Govt. of Manipur.

In fact, he has been involved with everything dealing with Indo Myanmar border trade.No policy decisions are taken without him. Besides me the other speakers were Prof Amar Yumnam and Dr Ch. Priyoranjan Singh of Manipur University, Prof. W. Ingo Meitei of Central Agricultural University, Sanjeev Nandwani, Ministry of Commerce and Ms N. Kulkaranidevi of Planning Department, Government of Manipur.

The presentations showed the variety of opinions on the issue ranging from Amar's "there is nothing for Manipur as yet "-ours'"how one should proceed to take advantage of the opportunity" to Priyoranjan's "we should prepare ourselves appropriately for the occasion". The officials held the view that LEP should be pushed forward in line with the directives of the Govt. of India.

The session started with my presentation. I stressed the emergence of new drivers of international trade. The comparative advantage used to originate from relative abundance of resources. Now economies of scale and fragmentation have created comparative advantage. It is estimated that international trade of Myanmar is only at 17% of the potential. However what Myanmar wants is more important than what we can supply. If we plan to push international trade using intensively resources abundantly available in the region only we will miss the bus.

The experience of newly industrialised countries in East Asia such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore shows that many imports are closely associated with exports. The opportunities for reaping the benefits of economies of scale through larger markets should be availed of, even if it may involve importing inputs from other states or even abroad. Japan produces and exports the best quality steel by importing iron ore.

Assam's tea industry prospered by using labourers from Bihar, Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. The money that we invest in such activities trying to usher in demand based industrialisation will be worth much more if we take into account the savings in the maintenance of law and order subsequent to lower unemployment rates. The second point I flagged was the prospect of construction in Myanmar. Being an underinvested country there will be lots of construction activities. Back at home construction had been the main driver of our growth.

Construction being a cyclical phenomenon there will be both downswings and upswings. The downswing part can be delayed by capitalising on construction needs in Myanmar. The international competition in Myanmar's construction activities will be beneficial for our construction sector dominated by contractors who have become a class on its own. My third point was the quality of data and our usual lament without doing anything.

Prof Amar started his presentation by warning us of the bumpy road ahead. He suggested that Manipur in particular and North East in general should be reflected in our LEP explicitly. He thought I was too optimistic. Where is India's NER in LEP? Manipur appeared in the picture only after the preparation of Comprehensive Asian Development plan. The concept of SEZ, however laudable, was an 18th century British construct of clusters. The model of industrialisation presented by China was based on fragmentation theory.

By the very nature of the concept it involved production across the country taking advantage of excellent connectivity. The government was struck with the notion of merchandise trade only. Ambassador Rajiv Sikri had admitted in a recent seminar at Singapore that in the 90s there was little of India's NER in India's Look east policy.

Dr. Priyoranjan argued that India's NER stratLook East policy-Manipur: India's Gateway to South East Asiaegy in the context of LEP has been adequately incorporated in North Eastern region Vision Document 2020 prepared by National Institute of Public Finance Policy, Delhi for North Eastern Council. The document shows how we can leverage our growth with LEP. Though the main author of the report Prof Govind Rao considered openness as the key to the region's development, I never thought that document had that insight.

He argued that Manipur never had a culture of trade. Trade and commerce became important after the World War II. If we ever think of trade based growth spread over our agriculture, we have to produce traders and entrepreneurs. He regretted that despite being the source of livelihood for over 50,000 people, border trade was being looked after by one Officer on Special duty. He warned that new initiatives in the region would have no future if these were not accepted by the people. Dr Priyoranjan has done a very comprehensive survey of the people of Moreh and that report is available in Manipur University website.

Prof. Ingo, a production specialist, dwelt at length on items and technology which would be demanded in international markets. He made a very comprehensive presentation on how to raise resources by doing some value addition in our agricultural products. He shared with us the economics of Umorok spray and Pineapple wine. What amazed me was the possibility of getting much more profit by producing the odd numbered bunch of bananas which we call Chang thokpa. These bunches are considered more worthy of our gods and goddesses.

That is true among the Meiteis in Myanmar. When an even numbered bunch would sell for Rs 50 to 60, an odd numbered bunch would sell for double the price. That is one reason why I never like buying banana for rituals. Our scientists have already mastered how to ensure that the bunch is always odd numbered by manipulating at the early flowering stage. That must have been as thrilling as the production of pumpkin without seeds. He also pointed out the smuggling of rare orchids with medicinal value to China. Our wealth of orchids is highly underutilised.

Ms Kulkarani gave a very interesting report of the policy measures being taken by the government. As expected of a bureaucrat she talked about what were being done, never asking whether that was the best policy. She warned that if we did not perform, Mizoram was waiting in the wing to challenge Manipur as the gateway to the South East Asia. There is so much of a difference in the law & order situation. Can you imagine driving 200 km to the international border and coming back without being bothered even once by any group on the way? Can you imagine driving in the hills at 10 pm with the city lights blinking far away without any worry? That is ordinary in Mizoram.

Nandwani agreed that data base was fairly fragile even though there have been several improvements. He added that not only data base, the knowledge of the region among the bureaucrats was, to say the least, pathetic. That is why we have had many well intentioned yet highly inefficient policy measures being thrust on us.

He, taking my cue, lamented that the construction boom in the region had not led to the establishment of any cement factory in the region. Cement industry should have been exceptionally viable given the strong regional demand. He said that LEP was only a possibility. The region should look north to China, south & west to Bangladesh.

Shri Nabakishore, chairman of the session, very diplomatically agreed to what everyone had said. He gave a very encouraging report of the recent state delegation to Myanmar's Sagaing region led by our Chief Minister. He talked of the rapid strides we have made in developing the infrastructure in Myanmar.

Imphal-Mandalay or Imphal-Yangon flight would soon become a reality when our Tulihal airport becomes international. Myanmar is changing fast-so is Myanmar's perception of the North east as a hopelessly hostile region. Visa on arrival would soon be a reality with visa office operating in Moreh. Many foreigners have been given permission to enter Myanmar through Moreh. Importing goods from China or Thailand by paying normal duties is possible provided Myanmar agrees to give passage.

This write-up would not have been possible without Dr Rajesh Kumar of State Academy of Training, Government of Manipur who was a hard task master determined to come up with some markers for the road ahead out of the diverse views of the brainstorming sessions. If we think and act together, we can chart any road however bumpy it may appear to be and we may have to do some jungle cutting of the road.